Always Believe In Yourself!

10-Sep 2012 Monday 12:55 AM (4239 days ago)

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Hi guys, I will share some tips that I have gained over the years in soccer betting. I learned this analysis skill mainly from china pro full-time gamblers.

#Introduction: How do bookies earn money?
Bookies earn money through taking commissions. Take for example, Singaporepools opens soccer match ODD or EVEN [email protected] each. Imagine I bet $1 on odd and you bet $1 on even. If I win, Singaporepool will eat your money and payout $1.83 to me, so $0.17($1 + $1 - $1.83 = $0.17) is absorbed as commission.

In any circumstances, all bookies will want to balance the bets equally, so they can maximize their profits without taking any risks. For example, if both of us were to bet on ODD together, the bookie is at risk of losing $1.64($0.83 x 2) for earning $2, if you multiply this by millions of punters, that will be a huge sum of money. That's why bookies adjust their odds to spread the bets more evenly.

#Simple analysis and logic
Okay that's when there is no match fixing. But what if the bookie deliberately try to unbalance the bets, knowing the team is hot favorite yet still offers very attractive odds without adjusting when they start accepting bets.

For e.g.
Man Utd VS Wigan,
1.90 0.5 1.90

Man Utd only gives 0.5ball to Wigan at home, how?? all the uncles or newbies will most probably showhand + legs on this match. Thinking getting free money from bookie. But of course, the bookie will not make it so obvious, usually is downgrade by 2 plates from strength plate.

Strength plate(实力盘): the handicap which is based solely on the strength/form of the team with no external factors(no match fixing)

tasty plate(笋盘）/ fake plate(假盘): the fake handicap opened by the bookie, either to attract you bet on something or to deter you. most likely match fixing

handicap plates:
0.0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00
move left = down plate, 1.00->0.50 = down 2 plates
move right = up plate, 0.0->0.25 = up 1 plate

This analytical method is very simple.
#1. open a plate according to your past experience for the match (do not look at the plate opened by the bookie, if will affect your judgement)
#2. compare it to the plate opened by the bookie
difference by 1 plate, take it as a misjudgement by yourself
difference by 2 plates, something "fishy"

difference by 3 plates, very rare, super kangtao if you get one.

past case for your reference: AC Milan vs Sampdoria

upcoming matches worth to take a look:
#1: Stoke vs man city
#2:QPR vs Chelsea

This message was edited by hanshen888 on 10-Sep-2012 @ 12:57 AM

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kokster85 Find all Topics Started by kokster85 Find all Posts by kokster85 Follow / Unfollow PM kokster85		10-Sep 2012 Monday 2:51 AM (4238 days ago)	#2
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13-Sep 2012 Thursday 1:58 AM (4235 days ago)

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Let me quote a most recent example of fake plate opened by the bookie. I will only reveal the teams and the actual handicap later.

World cup qualifying match
Team A vs Team B,

Team A last 5:WLWLL
Team B last 5:WWWLW
Past records: Team B won all 4 matches against Team A, but all were played at Team B home or neutral ground.
Popularity and world ranking: Team B is much better than Team A.

Okay, given this information, what is logical strength plate(handicap) will you give to Team B?

This message was edited by hanshen888 on 13-Sep-2012 @ 1:59 AM

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13-Sep 2012 Thursday 4:48 PM (4235 days ago)

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quote originally posted by hanshen888:

-1 bro?

This message was edited by kerr on 13-Sep-2012 @ 4:50 PM

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13-Sep 2012 Thursday 10:49 PM (4235 days ago)

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quote originally posted by kerr:

-1 bro? This message was edited by kerr on 13-Sep-2012 @ 4:50 PM

Ya bro,
Either -1 with high odds
Or -0.75 with middle low odds.

but -0.75 is more appropriate because A is at home ground, also picking up form won 2 out of last 3.

The actual match: UZBEKISTAN VS SOUTH KOREA on 11/09
Score:2-2

Guess what! Bookies opened -0.25 hdp for this match, draw lose half only, so nice. I wonder how many people died after showhand on this match.

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13-Sep 2012 Thursday 11:27 PM (4235 days ago)

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quote originally posted by hanshen888:

do bookies actually control the match or what. even if they balance out the odds how sure are they that giving out -0.25 is a safe thing for them considering the previous recording of winning all matches.

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14-Sep 2012 Friday 3:38 PM (4234 days ago)

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quote originally posted by kerr:

Bookies usually don't control the match, very risky to them. They may lose their licenses or face huge fines if they were being exposed. More commonly is that other people fix the match and sell those info to the bookies for money, like Wilson Raj. Moreover, some bookies sponsor some football teams and could possibly receive tips from the coaches. If the coach says " we are going to play more defensively this weekend", is this going to mean that high probability for UNDER??!! So bookies going to open higher than usual odds for OVER to attract punters. This is a grey area, even police cant do any thing about it, isnt it?

Bookies are companies that aim to make profits.
Let say for Uz vs Korea match, clearly the heavyboat will be on Korea. Yet bookie offered only -0.25 hdp for the team, this will lead to more bets on korea, agree? Think about it in another way, bets will be more balanced if the bookie offered -1 or -0.75 which they didnt. Like i said before, bookies usually takes commisions from balanced bet matches, no risk and 100% profits. When they are trying to unbalance the bet, that means there is simething else that you dont know.

Side note: key bookie to follow MACAUSLOTS
Also to take note, need to follow the match till closing. If the plate changes or the odds changes alot skip the match. Why?? Since they already roughly know the result for match why would they want to change odds or plate, just leave the plate there to continue to suck in millions of dollars. Unless something very promient happened, like Van persie injured. Then they need to wayang abit to down plate or so on.

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14-Sep 2012 Friday 4:03 PM (4234 days ago)

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quote originally posted by hanshen888:

betting is really deep and complicated. guess we need years of experience to finally understand what's the bookie are thinking.

but still, gonna stick here and support your analysis

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14-Sep 2012 Friday 11:12 PM (4234 days ago)

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quote originally posted by hanshen888:

Any more examples BEFORE a match starts?

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15-Sep 2012 Saturday 8:53 PM (4233 days ago)

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quote originally posted by kokster85:

Any more examples BEFORE a match starts?

Queens Park Rangers VS Chelsea
*Take QPR +0.75/+0.5

Kuban Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow
*Take Spartak Moscow -0.25

AC Milan VS Atalanta
*Take Atalanta +1

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16-Sep 2012 Sunday 12:30 AM (4233 days ago)

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1) QPR 0:0 Chelsea

2) Skip the match as the -0.25 plate for Moscow dropped to 0.0 plate 1 hour before kick off.

3) Pending...skip also if the plate change
AC Milan 0-1 alanta haha

Rem i said at the first post also to look out for stoke city match??

This message was edited by hanshen888 on 16-Sep-2012 @ 12:37 AM

This message was edited by hanshen888 on 16-Sep-2012 @ 11:40 AM

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seelangui

16-Sep 2012 Sunday 10:39 PM (4232 days ago)

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making profits also came with a plan also

what plan does your china friend use?
maybe i kewn him

see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼

betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557

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16-Sep 2012 Sunday 11:04 PM (4232 days ago)

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quote originally posted by seelangui:

making profits also came with a plan also

what plan does your china friend use?
maybe i kewn him

This is my own method that I derived with some guidances from my friend. We only chat online, never meet up in real life before.

My plan is simple. Each time 3 bets(consist of 3 different leagues) of 10% each.
So if I got $1000, then $100 per bet,
If all win, next round $130 per bet.

Last year hit 20k profit, this already hit the same target, so now stop betting. Soccer betting is an investment for me, side income.

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fabc Find all Topics Started by fabc Find all Posts by fabc Follow / Unfollow PM fabc		17-Sep 2012 Monday 12:01 AM (4232 days ago)	#14
Silver Member Posts: 14027 Liked By: 7452 Joined: 05 Mar 12 Tipsters Championship: Player has not started	don't talk so much, kangtao where? *Want to receive cheque from Singapore Pools* ah hock:"if everyday like this want to poor also difficult" harewlood34:"My friend work in s pools so long Never saw 10k bet b4" KoChun:"We actually use iclone's auntie's picks." hanman0072002:"honework sounds like a young boy but iClone sounds like a clown wahahaha"
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17-Sep 2012 Monday 7:52 PM (4231 days ago)

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quote originally posted by hanshen888:

looks like the same guy i met in real life .is he south or east china ppl?

good planner would win in long run.there are eight plan in this trade .

so he is skill type.

thanks .

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17-Sep 2012 Monday 9:01 PM (4231 days ago)

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quote originally posted by seelangui:

looks like the same guy i met in real life .is he south or east china ppl?

good planner would win in long run.there are eight plan in this trade .

so he is skill type.

thanks .

Haha the world is big yet so small.

For anyone who is following this thread.

Amkar perm vs Volga
Volga +0.75 seems to a good deal.

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21-Sep 2012 Friday 8:53 PM (4227 days ago)

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Hi Hanshen,

Can check with your fren, what is the maximum amt of money(betsize) we can throw into the market for the major league during jalan(live-betting), without the bookie catching you?

Is there a way to see the league we betting is low volume or high volume, so i can adjust my betsize accordingly.

Pls advise, i'm still trying to figure out the high/low water money on the above mentioned point.

Thanx for sharing.

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22-Sep 2012 Saturday 10:43 AM (4226 days ago)

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quote originally posted by windersports_88:

Sorry know nothing about jalan because is totally different.

No point knowing the total bet volume for a match or for a team. The odds are fake and also sometimes bookies will inject their own money into the market to lower the odds. I still remember the days whereby I rushed to bet because the odds was dropping very fast.

The analysis method works best in big 4 leagues.

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23-Sep 2012 Sunday 9:03 AM (4225 days ago)

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quote originally posted by hanshen888:

after seeing few of you reply post . i kewn you had really stop gambling soccer.

now adays all are fake .just keep learning thats the only way to win in long run.

now is a high tech world .anyone could contact any person as and when they want.

and transfer any amount of cash and any things they wanted in just few minutes.

so must keep learning and there not free lunch.

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24-Sep 2012 Monday 12:45 AM (4225 days ago)

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quote originally posted by seelangui:

after seeing few of you reply post . i kewn you had really stop gambling soccer.

now adays all are fake .just keep learning thats the only way to win in long run.

now is a high tech world .anyone could contact any person as and when they want.

and transfer any amount of cash and any things they wanted in just few minutes.

so must keep learning and there not free lunch.

Haha. Self-discipline is very important, hit target = stop. Learned the lesson in the hard way back then when I lost my 20k winning due to itchy fingers.

Personally I think that the best time to bet is during mid-season when the teams are showing their trends, strong at home/or weak at away games. As long as there are people bet on soccer, there will be match-fixing. It is a dirty business, just like stock market insider trading.

So fools out there, pls continue to bet according to past records and team forms.

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24-Sep 2012 Monday 9:20 PM (4224 days ago)

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quote originally posted by hanshen888:

yes i could say this is true but how you kown its fix and how you could avoid it ,no way.

my way simple.

i use eye jackpot system.

thats the only way i would use .just remenber this by heart

yesterday win, will be today lesson. keep learning to stop you from making a profit

can be done and will be done .if the person you kewn is from southen china

he would be my friend.skill is important ,thats the only way

not easy way or what plan could work.wish you all the best .

time would tell and would overcome all odds

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25-Sep 2012 Tuesday 3:09 AM (4223 days ago)

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quote originally posted by seelangui:

yes i could say this is true but how you kown its fix and how you could avoid it ,no way.

my way simple.

i use eye jackpot system.

thats the only way i would use .just remenber this by heart

yesterday win, will be today lesson. keep learning to stop you from making a profit

can be done and will be done .if the person you kewn is from southen china

he would be my friend.skill is important ,thats the only way

not easy way or what plan could work.wish you all the best .

time would tell and would overcome all odds

Actually I prefer match fixing, if not my method won't work out. Bookies fix the match and offer cheap handicap to the favorite team, this is what I am trying to spot.

Tonight's match.
Deportivo La Coruna VS Sevilla
Take Deportivo lvl plate

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25-Sep 2012 Tuesday 4:28 PM (4223 days ago)

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SPA D1

03:30

[8]Deportivo La Coruna

0 - 2

Sevilla[5]

0 - 0

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25-Sep 2012 Tuesday 7:21 PM (4223 days ago)

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yesterday win, will be today lesson go to this link and learn what went wrong . i won and jackpot.

match fix is not easy to kown.unless you kown whos behind it. but with skill you could kown what you

wanted to kown befor the match up start kicking. or during live

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23-Oct 2012 Tuesday 11:58 PM (4195 days ago)

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Hi guys, I'm back.

Tonight's Tips.

Main Bets
1) Barcelona -2.50
2) Lille +1.50

Other Bets
1) Benfica 0.0
2) Hull City 0.0
3) Milton Keynes Dons 0.0
4) Peterborough +0.25

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24-Oct 2012 Wednesday 10:34 AM (4194 days ago)

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quote originally posted by hanshen888:

Hi guys, I'm back.

Tonight's Tips.

Main Bets
1) Barcelona -2.50
2) Lille +1.50

Other Bets
1) Benfica 0.0
2) Hull City 0.0
3) Milton Keynes Dons 0.0
4) Peterborough +0.25

Lost 4 win 2

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24-Oct 2012 Wednesday 1:58 PM (4194 days ago)

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quote originally posted by hanshen888:

Hi guys, I'm back.
Tonight's Tips.
Main Bets
1) Barcelona -2.50
2) Lille +1.50
Other Bets
1) Benfica 0.0
2) Hull City 0.0
3) Milton Keynes Dons 0.0
4) Peterborough +0.25

I fully agree with your method...it works brilliantly in the past during pager era, as punter place bets b4 the match starts. Bookie catch u once you can't run, now got live betting what is hot b4 match starts might be cold in the 2nd 1/2 as punter can hedge. Tough way to earn a living...lots of tan jia kar in the market.

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23-Jan 2013 Wednesday 2:11 AM (4103 days ago)

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Hi guys, I'm back. My posted tips on AB forum tend to lose more often than my usual standard. That's why I have stopped posting for a while.

I have made some changes to my method.

1) In the past, I used to assume that when bookie opens a deeper hdp plate(e.g bookie offer -1.50 ball when I think it should be -1.00 ball), they want to lure people to bet on the eat ball team. But I was wrong, sometimes this could actually lead to false confidence on the give ball team and resulting in more people betting on them. Thus, giving deeper hdp than your own hdp is a disadvantage to the give ball team, not eat ball team in most cases.

Tonight's tip:
ENG D1: Hartlepool United +0.5

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31-Jan 2013 Thursday 2:58 AM (4095 days ago)

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quote originally posted by tradingaccount:

DIE AGAIN?

ENG D1
03:45
[24] Hartlepool United FC 1 - 2 AFC Bournemouth * [8] 0-1 0.5 Win

ya I know, lose bet again. everytime I post tips on AB = lose, don't know why

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31-Jan 2013 Thursday 3:18 AM (4095 days ago)

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Let me post some of my analysis tips again, see if the AB forum curse still exist on me. If overall lose, I will stop posting any tips again.

Pacos de Ferreira vs Benfica
Take: Pacos +1

Everton vs West Bromwich(WBA)
Take: WBA +1

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01-Feb 2013 Friday 4:00 PM (4094 days ago)

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quote originally posted by hanshen888:

team forms and past records cannot be ignored and should use as a reference.

bookies are always ahead of you, everyone and anybody.

i dun really like to call fake plates or whatsoever.

actually the opening odds set is the true story of how the game will flow.

the subsequent odds fluctuation are more often punters influenced as well as team news influenced.

whenever ppl bet on the wrong odds such as above, this is part of the reason why you all call this is fake plate.

Let me give you an example in order for you to understand.

Lets say:

Man Utd vs West Ham

Man Utd opening odds give 1 ball win 85

Opening Total Goal Over 2.75 win 85

Based on this opening odds:

we should know MU give 1 is considered little and the total goal is on the high side tio boh?

Hence, the likely out come is that West Ham to score goals in Old Trafford. Logical right?

But as time goes from the morning till kick off:

Closing odds is MU give 1.5 win 85

Closing TG odds is MU Over 3 win 85

So generally ppl tend to think: Wah MU ******** and clear handicap cos from -1 to -1.5. Ppl all whack mu.

But based on the opening odds outcome the game should end: MU 2-1

Sounds familiar this kind of scenario?

So what happens next?

Punters says:"Kelong. Fake odds. Fake plate. Heavy boat."

You may be wondering why follow opening odds. Simple.

If you are bookie, you dare to open such opening odds, the bookie must be prepared to kena heavy bombament on MU giving 1 ball. No bookies want to lose. So the odds that is set by bookies, they must ensure they reap profits. The subsequent odds changes is to balance the books. There is no way a bookie can balance the books on opening odds especially is tempting punters to bet on one side.

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01-Feb 2013 Friday 4:06 PM (4094 days ago)

#32

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So imho, in order to be on par with the bookies as we cannot be ahead of the bookies is to understand the reasoning of the opening odds.

Based on the example above, use that opening odds to cross reference with past form and past records.

MU records so gd at home vs West Ham and the form is much better than West Ham for example.

Giving -1 ball is illogical unless bookies know something punters dun. I am sure they do. Whether it is kelong or insider info they have we dunno. All we need to know is to think like they do.

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aspirex Find all Topics Started by aspirex Find all Posts by aspirex Follow / Unfollow PM aspirex		29-Sep 2020 Tuesday 2:52 PM (1297 days ago)	#33
Active Member Posts: 277 Liked By: 360 Joined: 14 Mar 17 Tipsters Championship: Player has not started	I find that often if a team suddenly give stronger handicap and i eat on the weaker side tend to win $
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21-Feb 2023 Tuesday 8:05 PM (422 days ago)

#34

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Any new updates and strategies on this? :)

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28-Sep 2023 Thursday 8:31 PM (203 days ago)

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I want to share with you a Jalan betting strategy in with you guys that's work very well for me long term. This method applies to the EPL , la liga and Bundesliga preferably. If a very strong team at home vs a weak team away the first half scoreline is a draw , and the home team is giving 1.25 ball and above in the 2nd half, in 2nd half there WILL BE a GOAL. So the moment a plate has OVER 1 GOAL, bet on that first , and then incrementally on over 0.75 , 0.5 goal when available. If a goal is scored before the game drops to OVER 1 GOAL. Just avoid the game.

This also works when the away team the underdog is leading by a goal in the first half , and if the handicap on the second half the home team is giving 1.25 ball and above, there will BE A GOAL in the 2nd half. The favourite will either try to fight back equalise or win the game OR probably concede again. So the general idea of this method is you don't care who is gonna score, as long there is a GOAL or more in the 2nd half, you WILL WIN the bet. Never bet on your favourite team, because the ball can enter into the net on either team.

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