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Posted By Topic: Taiwan Human Rights Lawyer, Chen Jun-Han Passed Away, Age 40       - Views: 187
Fahrenheit
15-Feb 2024 Thursday 8:35 PM (74 days ago)
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Chen Junhan (June 15, 1983 - Feb 2024), a native of Hsinchu, Taiwan, is a lawyer, accountant, and advocate for disability policy. He is currently a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of Law of Academia Sinica. He suffered from spinal muscular atrophy since childhood, but still studied hard. He graduated from the Department of Accounting and Law of National Taiwan University, Harvard University Master of Laws and University of Michigan Doctor of Laws. He topped the Taiwan lawyer exam and became a lawyer in the United States. In 2023, he was listed as a non-partisan legislator of the Democratic Progressive Party, but was not elected.

Chen Junhan suffered from spinal muscular atrophy since childhood and had a dream of studying abroad. Because of his physical condition, he could not flip through books by himself, and his mother did it for him. In college, he studied in the Department of Accounting of National Taiwan University and double-majored in the Department of Law because of his interest. At that time, his mother moved into the dormitory of National Taiwan University to accompany him. His mother placed the book on the stand and helped him turn the pages. He also had to turn over from time to time. After falling asleep, Chen Junhan had to wear a respirator to sleep to avoid respiratory arrest.

Chen Junhan had to amputate his limbs due to a fire caused by the electric wire of the electric blanket on his body during college.

After graduating, Chen Junhan topped the list of the Economic Law Group of the Graduate Institute of Law of National Taiwan University, topped the lawyer exam in 2006, and obtained an accountant license.

In 2014, Chen Junhan obtained a master’s degree from the Harvard Law School. In 2022, he obtained a doctorate in law from the University of Michigan. After returning to Taiwan, he served as a lawyer and an advocate for international human rights and disability policy.

On January 11, 2024, Wang Zhian, a mainland Chinese media person who was banned by the Chinese government and exiled to Japan, criticized the Democratic Progressive Party for using Chen Junhan for emotional mobilization at the rally site, saying that it was very utilitarian and sensational, and opposed putting him in the non-partisan legislator list. Behind the position. On the web show “He Long Night Show” broadcast on January 22, Wang Zhian continued to criticize the Taiwan rally as a concert or talent show, saying that someone “pushed the disabled person up to sensationalize” and imitated the disabled person’s body movements. In response, Chen Junhan said, “In a progressive society, one should see the dignity and value of the disabled as human beings, and in China, there is no freedom of election, but ridicule the way of democratic and free elections in Taiwan, which is absurd.” Wang Zhian apologized to Chen Junhan and was rejected, and posted a YouTube video to apologize.

On January 28, He Long, who had disappeared for many days, publicly responded in the show, saying that the team had privately apologized to Chen Junhan, admitting that he and the team had negligence, humbly reviewed, and said that he hoped that the Democratic Progressive Party would pass the supplement. Let Chen Junhan enter the Legislative Yuan, and if there is no chance, the Night Show will “fully assist the Democratic Progressive Party in the 2028 election.”

Wang Yichuan responded to this by sending threads, “He doesn’t want to say sorry, I really can’t force him”, reminding parents who watch the show to educate their children to see someone verbally bullying the disabled, and to bravely stand up and defend the value of equality for life. .

Chen Junhan issued a statement, regretting that some people on the Internet (including Wang Zhian) “tried to divert attention, turning a simple issue of value judgment into a struggle between political parties, or the DPP government deliberately suppressed freedom of speech and network programs”, but affirmed He Long was willing to come forward to apologize, and thought that He Long “didn’t have to force himself to vote for the DPP in 2028”, and the preciousness of democracy and freedom lies in “everyone can freely choose their own recognition”.





 

This message was edited by Fahrenheit on 15-Feb-2024 at 8:37 PM




"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

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Fahrenheit
15-Feb 2024 Thursday 8:37 PM (74 days ago)            #2
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"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
Bolametrix Quantitative Research
(Est. Oct 2014)

Team Ranked: #52 - Team Score (Top 50 Members): AB$ 1,693,125 Total Members: 44
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Fahrenheit
15-Feb 2024 Thursday 8:38 PM (74 days ago)            #3
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"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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Fahrenheit
16-Feb 2024 Friday 3:36 AM (74 days ago)            #4
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"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Betting
A team's past ability to create quality chances is the expected number of goals that they should have produced. The expected number of goals in excess of the actual number of goals constitutes the "margin of safety". The margin is counted on to cushion the bettor against discomfiture in the event of a performance decline in the upcoming fixture. The soccer bettor does not expect the upcoming fixture to work out the same as in the past. If he were sure of that, the safety margin demanded might be small. The function of a safety margin is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the team's winning probability in the upcoming fixture. If the safety margin is sufficiently large, then it is enough to assume that the team's upcoming performance will not fall far below their expected goals in order for the bettor to feel sufficiently cushioned against bad luck. The safety margin is always dependent on the odds that the bettor accepts from the bookie. It will be large in certain odds, small at some lower odds, and negative when the odds is too low. However, even with a safety margin in the bettor's favour, he may lose his bet. For the margin guarantees only that he has a better chance of winning - not that loss is impossible. 
Theory of Diversification
There is a close logical connection between the concept of safety margin and the principle of diversification. One is correlative with the other. Even with a margin in the bettor’s favor, an individual bet may work out badly. But as the number of such commitments is increased the more certain does it become that the aggregate of the profits will exceed the aggregate of the losses. This point may be made more colorful by a reference to the arithmetic of roulette. If a man bets $1 on a single number, he is paid $35 profit when he wins—but the chances are 37 to 1 that he will lose. He has a “negative margin of safety.” In his case diversification is foolish. The more numbers he bets on, the smaller his chance of ending with a profit. If he regularly bets $1 on every number (including 0 and 00), he is certain to lose $2 on each turn of the wheel. But suppose the winner received $39 profit instead of $35. Then he would have a small but important margin of safety. Therefore, the more numbers he wagers on, the better his chance of gain. And he could be certain of winning $2 on every spin by simply betting $1 each on all the numbers. (Incidentally, the two examples given actually describe the respective positions of the player and proprietor of a wheel with a 0 and 00.)

AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
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seelangui
16-Feb 2024 Friday 9:17 AM (73 days ago)            #5
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see what you want to see believe all you see
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Taurus05
16-Feb 2024 Friday 10:00 AM (73 days ago)            #6
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the world is losing good people. It seem like this world is against good people.



 
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nil
16-Feb 2024 Friday 11:05 AM (73 days ago)            #7
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seelangui
16-Feb 2024 Friday 12:15 PM (73 days ago)            #8
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quote originally posted by Taurus05:
the world is losing good people. It seem like this world is against good people.




好心没好报😬
nowadays cannot be good too much
Always tio scam or something no good 
 



see what you want to see believe all you see
My current Mission is keep wining until S_P 斗/close shop
use main & sub method unit 1 unit= $20:
Use main bet as base the rest side bet to add on to max win or more Name it Eye jackpot system 南神眼



betting records at
http://forums.asianbookie.com/viewmessages.cfm?Forum=45&Topic=2112557


AsianBookie Tipsters Championship
Member of Team:
東方不敗
(Est. Nov 2013)

Total Members: 17
 
Taurus05  1 Likes  
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Taurus05
17-Feb 2024 Saturday 9:06 AM (72 days ago)            #9
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quote originally posted by seelangui:

好心没好报😬
nowadays cannot be good too much
Always tio scam or something no good 



nowadays do good invole great amount of money.
 



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